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Re: so OTM...Chest Drop Rates...When are you disclosing them?

#21
quinn2000 wrote:"Random" numbers can never be truly "random" when generated by a computer. They always follow a programmed algorithm.

While this is technically true, the algorithm is statistically random enough to qualify for these instances; even if it were possible to monitor ever chest opened by every player on every server, it would be quite difficult for anyone (even a computer) to reverse-engineer the algorithm and even then it would be horribly impractical to use that information to predict future drops. Thus, it's feasibly random ENOUGH for its given use.

Also, it's good to keep in mind that every chance is an independent event; you are just as likely to get an egg from a chest if you've open 10,000 chest and gotten none as you are when you've opened 0, or even when you've opened 5 chests and gotten 5 eggs.
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Re: so OTM...Chest Drop Rates...When are you disclosing them?

#22
Mind wrote:
quinn2000 wrote:"Random" numbers can never be truly "random" when generated by a computer. They always follow a programmed algorithm.

While this is technically true, the algorithm is statistically random enough to qualify for these instances; even if it were possible to monitor ever chest opened by every player on every server, it would be quite difficult for anyone (even a computer) to reverse-engineer the algorithm and even then it would be horribly impractical to use that information to predict future drops. Thus, it's feasibly random ENOUGH for its given use.

+1
While random number gens are never truly random since they are just pseusdorandom numbers, the results are sufficient for this.
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Re: so OTM...Chest Drop Rates...When are you disclosing them?

#23
Well.. if it says anything.. airo and I decided to spend some cash on the game yesterday. Needless to say.. she was so disappointed since she has never spent money on a game before and dropped such a large amount that for the return to be so little, it almost turned her off the game :/ I had to show her how to sell her lixes and other items and she ended up making some cash and bought some much needed lux items so in the end she was happy ( ish ) but she was really hoping to see at least one dragon egg or mount or something unique yet.. the most unique item we got out of 250+ chests was a lute.. now to me I didn't really mind as I was able to sell a bunch of pet tokens and mount tokens to get my much needed lux but ultimately for my girlfriend IRL who came to the game brand new to MMORPG's.. she was really excited for a unicorn. As everyone else does ( most of the time ) she worked hard to get her character to 165 and then spent hard cash to get a nice item and came up short. Are the odds in our favor? Not a chance. Do I think it should be a little more available? Yes. Slightly. Not so much that everyone gets something now but enough that if you are willing to dump over a hundred bucks.. let's get something worth that investment. The drop chance should have some sort of elimination process to avoid getting 5 of the same item. Got 4 pink vindicator breastplates.. ow. However I hate to complain and I will end it here. I love the game I love the idea and I don't mind supporting and spending money on a game that I enjoy so much.

Re: so OTM...Chest Drop Rates...When are you disclosing them?

#25
Kril wrote:I am sure OTM is determining the best way to approach this.

It may not be a simple thing to even determine accurate rates, as they are probably based on complex formulas, and the resulting rates would need to be figured by analyzing a sufficient amount of historical data, averaged across all servers.
You would probably need at least a year's worth of historical data for each item (without the formula having been adjusted at all) to be able to provide a reasonably accurate number.


they know exactly the odds of something dropping. does not mean it will just the likelihood.
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