# Celtic Heroes

## Find the dragon egg drop rate experimentally

### Re: Find the dragon egg drop rate experimentally

#11
Chaotic wrote:5700 chests
9 eggs
0 2m
0 4k

No way the eggs are the same jackpot at 2m and 4k

So why has no-one complained about the drop rates of the 4k and 2m, when all 3 are considered jackpot prizes by OTM?
Also, and I appreciate this one small set of data is definitely not an accurate representation, this suggests that the chance of 6 eggs is still better than the other 2 prizes. So reinforces even more the wonderment of why everyone feels the need to complain about the drop rate of one jackpot prize over the others.
clanless in a clan filled world
- and happy to be so

### Re: Find the dragon egg drop rate experimentally

#12
No use finding the average if the distribution has high variance. Imagine a flattish bell without a pronounced peak. Or bars. Crude example:
Individual chance (%)
[0 - 0.05] 39 cases <---- Robert is here!
(0.05 - 0.10] 44 cases <---- Sweefish is here!
(0.10 - 0.15] 45 cases
(0.15 - 0.20] 43 cases <---- Chaotic is here!
(0.20 - 0.25] 42 cases
....
(0.95 - 1.00] 17 cases
....

(Just to show a flattish curve; individual number of chests bought doesn't matter)

And imagine the amount of data you have to collect from a thread in semi-dead Celtic forum to get a meaningful picture.

Also, this single average does not exist if the drop rate is rigged by the developer.

### Re: Find the dragon egg drop rate experimentally

#13
Robbo5000 wrote:
Chaotic wrote:5700 chests
9 eggs
0 2m
0 4k

No way the eggs are the same jackpot at 2m and 4k

So why has no-one complained about the drop rates of the 4k and 2m, when all 3 are considered jackpot prizes by OTM?
Also, and I appreciate this one small set of data is definitely not an accurate representation, this suggests that the chance of 6 eggs is still better than the other 2 prizes. So reinforces even more the wonderment of why everyone feels the need to complain about the drop rate of one jackpot prize over the others.

Because we don’t consider one egg to be a jackpot. Just because OTM decided to call it a jackpot does not make it one. I don’t expect to win a jackpot, I did expect a reasonable drop rate on eggs. If I gamble, I am given a probability rate. OTM has confused players. We have years of legacy mounts dropping from chests. We have mount tokens. Now they have a new mount based on a new token called an egg. It is to take fewer. In beta questions were asked, never was it said to me that these eggs would be rare, or a jackpot prize. I even wrote a post about drop rates. No one at OTM responded to correct my error in thinking. Buyers are buying blind, and statistically it appears OTM has criteria besides the drop rate that is at play.

### Re: Find the dragon egg drop rate experimentally

#14
Dgoodno wrote:
Robbo5000 wrote:
Chaotic wrote:5700 chests
9 eggs
0 2m
0 4k

No way the eggs are the same jackpot at 2m and 4k

So why has no-one complained about the drop rates of the 4k and 2m, when all 3 are considered jackpot prizes by OTM?
Also, and I appreciate this one small set of data is definitely not an accurate representation, this suggests that the chance of 6 eggs is still better than the other 2 prizes. So reinforces even more the wonderment of why everyone feels the need to complain about the drop rate of one jackpot prize over the others.

Because we don’t consider one egg to be a jackpot. Just because OTM decided to call it a jackpot does not make it one. I don’t expect to win a jackpot, I did expect a reasonable drop rate on eggs. If I gamble, I am given a probability rate. OTM has confused players. We have years of legacy mounts dropping from chests. We have mount tokens. Now they have a new mount based on a new token called an egg. It is to take fewer. In beta questions were asked, never was it said to me that these eggs would be rare, or a jackpot prize. I even wrote a post about drop rates. No one at OTM responded to correct my error in thinking. Buyers are buying blind, and statistically it appears OTM has criteria besides the drop rate that is at play.

It is completely irrelevant what you consider to be a jackpot or not, as I pointed out on a previous reply to you. OTM have designated the eggs to be jackpot prizes with drop rates set as such. OTM have called them jackpot prizes on this forum site. When Food of the Gods went live (not beta) people asked about the eggs and other players pointed out they are jackpot prizes and to expect drop rates to be set accordingly. So this isn't new knowledge just coming out now.
If players have been told they are jackpot prizes, then refuse to believe that they really are jackpot prizes, then it's nobodies fault but the players if they play and fail to win a jackpot prize.
If players want to plead ignorance, then more fool them for choosing to spend the amounts of money they have, without bothering to arm themselves with the facts first.
So just because a player believes the eggs shouldn't be a jackpot prize and should have lower drop rates doesn't give them a right to complain, when what they have been told turns out to be correct after all.
clanless in a clan filled world
- and happy to be so

### Re: Find the dragon egg drop rate experimentally

#15
opened about 750 before I got one egg
0 - 4k plat, 0 - 2m gold

### Re: Find the dragon egg drop rate experimentally

#16
Purchased 640 chests.

Opened 633, zero jackpots. Sold last 7 to friend, he got egg.

: ))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

A mage at heart... Fire mage that is.
Currently actively playing the game.

### Re: Find the dragon egg drop rate experimentally

#17
Robbo5000 wrote:
Dgoodno wrote:
Robbo5000 wrote:So why has no-one complained about the drop rates of the 4k and 2m, when all 3 are considered jackpot prizes by OTM?
Also, and I appreciate this one small set of data is definitely not an accurate representation, this suggests that the chance of 6 eggs is still better than the other 2 prizes. So reinforces even more the wonderment of why everyone feels the need to complain about the drop rate of one jackpot prize over the others.

Because we don’t consider one egg to be a jackpot. Just because OTM decided to call it a jackpot does not make it one. I don’t expect to win a jackpot, I did expect a reasonable drop rate on eggs. If I gamble, I am given a probability rate. OTM has confused players. We have years of legacy mounts dropping from chests. We have mount tokens. Now they have a new mount based on a new token called an egg. It is to take fewer. In beta questions were asked, never was it said to me that these eggs would be rare, or a jackpot prize. I even wrote a post about drop rates. No one at OTM responded to correct my error in thinking. Buyers are buying blind, and statistically it appears OTM has criteria besides the drop rate that is at play.

It is completely irrelevant what you consider to be a jackpot or not, as I pointed out on a previous reply to you. OTM have designated the eggs to be jackpot prizes with drop rates set as such. OTM have called them jackpot prizes on this forum site. When Food of the Gods went live (not beta) people asked about the eggs and other players pointed out they are jackpot prizes and to expect drop rates to be set accordingly. So this isn't new knowledge just coming out now.
If players have been told they are jackpot prizes, then refuse to believe that they really are jackpot prizes, then it's nobodies fault but the players if they play and fail to win a jackpot prize.
If players want to plead ignorance, then more fool them for choosing to spend the amounts of money they have, without bothering to arm themselves with the facts first.
So just because a player believes the eggs shouldn't be a jackpot prize and should have lower drop rates doesn't give them a right to complain, when what they have been told turns out to be correct after all.

Your belief that the player base doesn't have a right to complain about a gameplay affecting 'jackpot' prize being introduced is quite irrelevant and disappointing.

Players are giving feedback based on an aspect of the game they are unhappy with. Quite relevant. If OTM says Agg rings are Bind On Equip, it doesn't mean players couldn't complain about it, we did and it was changed...after years of discussion. Just because something is the way it is, doesn't mean the player base should be quiet about it. Forums is a excellent tool for us to communicate our thoughts and feelings to the Devs. You demeaning our feedback is extremely frustrating, and quite frankly tiring to read.
World: Epona

Alyssandra Ranger Lvl 221
Atropos Druid Lvl 225
Nyssa Rogue Lvl 215
Briar Rose Mage Lvl 215

Lasciel Rogue Lvl 217
Owl Ranger Lvl 190
Lenore Druid Lvl 191

I could agree with you, but then we'd both be wrong.

### Re: Find the dragon egg drop rate experimentally

#18
Alyssandra wrote:
Robbo5000 wrote:
Dgoodno wrote:
Because we don’t consider one egg to be a jackpot. Just because OTM decided to call it a jackpot does not make it one. I don’t expect to win a jackpot, I did expect a reasonable drop rate on eggs. If I gamble, I am given a probability rate. OTM has confused players. We have years of legacy mounts dropping from chests. We have mount tokens. Now they have a new mount based on a new token called an egg. It is to take fewer. In beta questions were asked, never was it said to me that these eggs would be rare, or a jackpot prize. I even wrote a post about drop rates. No one at OTM responded to correct my error in thinking. Buyers are buying blind, and statistically it appears OTM has criteria besides the drop rate that is at play.

It is completely irrelevant what you consider to be a jackpot or not, as I pointed out on a previous reply to you. OTM have designated the eggs to be jackpot prizes with drop rates set as such. OTM have called them jackpot prizes on this forum site. When Food of the Gods went live (not beta) people asked about the eggs and other players pointed out they are jackpot prizes and to expect drop rates to be set accordingly. So this isn't new knowledge just coming out now.
If players have been told they are jackpot prizes, then refuse to believe that they really are jackpot prizes, then it's nobodies fault but the players if they play and fail to win a jackpot prize.
If players want to plead ignorance, then more fool them for choosing to spend the amounts of money they have, without bothering to arm themselves with the facts first.
So just because a player believes the eggs shouldn't be a jackpot prize and should have lower drop rates doesn't give them a right to complain, when what they have been told turns out to be correct after all.

Your belief that the player base doesn't have a right to complain about a gameplay affecting 'jackpot' prize being introduced is quite irrelevant and disappointing.

Players are giving feedback based on an aspect of the game they are unhappy with. Quite relevant. If OTM says Agg rings are Bind On Equip, it doesn't mean players couldn't complain about it, we did and it was changed...after years of discussion. Just because something is the way it is, doesn't mean the player base should be quiet about it. Forums is a excellent tool for us to communicate our thoughts and feelings to the Devs. You demeaning our feedback is extremely frustrating, and quite frankly tiring to read.

Not strictly true. Players are complaining that they gambled a lot of money and didn't get either a jackpot prize or as many jackpot prizes as they hoped. This is what I say is an unjustified complaint. Before players paid the money and gambled it was known that the eggs are jackpot prizes and so would expect drop rates similar to the play and gold jackpots. It was also known that 6 eggs are required to get a max level dragon. If players weren't aware of either of these facts, then they should have found out before spending that amount of cash.

As far as complaining generally about the drop rates of the eggs and the amounts of cash required to get even a single egg, never mind six, then yes it's completely valid and I completely agree. I also agree that discussions should be had about the new direction of adding gameplay affecting 'paid for content', as this seems to go against the original ethos of the game and OTM. I also think discussions need to be had before Corrupted Gardens is released, because if it turns out that even a single boss requires a dragon pet to be present at the kill then it really could signify the end for a large number of long term player base.

But to reiterate, most complaints are that players gambled and didn't hit the jackpot enough times, leading to the players demanding they are given eggs in compensation and demanding the drop rates to be lowered. Looking at the small number who've posted figures for gold and plat jackpots also, it seems the drop rates of eggs are no higher and may even be less, so as it stands the complaints are unjustified.
clanless in a clan filled world
- and happy to be so

#19
3770 chests
1 4k plat
0 2 million
2 eggs

### Re: Find the dragon egg drop rate experimentally

#20
Drop rate is fine. Nobody should be complaining. There can be multiple jackpots with multiple chances of each. My best estimate would be egg is 1/800 chances while the 2m is closer to 1/5000 and 4k about 1/2000
UltimateIronman - Level 50 Morrigan