Celtic Heroes

If the chance of success is exactly 1%, and you run 100 trials, then your expected value is 1 success.

If the chance of getting a mount is exactly 0.1%, and you kill 1000 witches, then your expected value is 1 mount.

If the chance of success is exactly 1%, and you run 100 trials, then your expected value is 1 success.

If the chance of getting a mount is exactly 0.1%, and you kill 1000 witches, then your expected value is 1 mount.

True but it's only a 37% chance for the hundred and/or thousand case. It's better to give the exact odds because its almost as likely to get 2 or more as exactly 1

Are you Han Solo? He had a thing about odds too.

Expected value = N x P, where N is the number of trials and P is your probability of success.

The expected value is what people want to know. It answers the question: how many mounts should I have in my bag, on average, if I kill X witches?

What you're talking about is the probability that you will get exactly 1 mount. If the chance of getting 1 mount is X%, there is also Y% chance of getting 0 mounts, and Z% chance of getting 2 mounts, etc.

But when you combine all those % chances and values, you get the expected value.

Expected value = N x P, where N is the number of trials and P is your probability of success.

The expected value is what people want to know. It answers the question: how many mounts should I have in my bag, on average, if I kill X witches?

What you're talking about is the probability that you will get exactly 1 mount. If the chance of getting 1 mount is X%, there is also Y% chance of getting 0 mounts, and Z% chance of getting 2 mounts, etc.

But when you combine all those % chances and values, you get the expected value.

Wrong im sorry to say.

The expected value is the most likely outcome which is the average for equal probability events.

Since the odds of getting 1 is better than 2 in the above cases (37%) 1 is the expected value. When I say at least one it's the odds of 1+2+3+...+100 (or 1000). That's what people really want to know.

It's phrased as so if i kill 1000 what are the odds i get at least one? Most dont realize its 73.58% and that there is a real chance 26.42% of total failure.

Wrong im sorry to say. The expected value is the most likely single outcome.

If a roll a fair six-sided die, what's the expected value? Each number is equally likely to show up.

Expected value is a long-term average.

In probability theory, the expected value of a random variable is intuitively the long-run average value of repetitions of the experiment it represents.

So the expected value of a fair six-sided die is 3.5.

Let's just conclude that these mounts are difficult to get.

Btw Swan I see you afk at 150 boss.

I've killed over 500 and gotten nothing. Gosh, I love these events.

Wrong im sorry to say. The expected value is the most likely single outcome.

If a roll a fair six-sided die, what's the expected value? Each number is equally likely to show up.

Expected value is a long-term average.

In probability theory, the expected value of a random variable is intuitively the long-run average value of repetitions of the experiment it represents.

So the expected value of a fair six-sided die is 3.5.

Why are you questioning basic mathematics? Obviously you have not passed through precalc.

Its important to actually understand the math because in the 1-1000 case your odds of exactly 1 is 37.9 while 2 or more is 35.7.

Your more likely to win 2+ than zero. I'm not going to start a forum battle over something that can be proven with basic axioms. It's silly.

I've killed over 500 and gotten nothing. Gosh, I love these events.

300+ or so for me. Nothin as well. But ima try anyway

I got a 10% mount off a lvl 20

Going off past events the odds are around one in a thousand. So if you kill one thousand you stand about a 70% chance of at least one.

Uhh.. how did you come up with 70% lmao

The binomial distribution theorem. The odds of at least one, given 1 in 1000 odds and 1000 tries are the sum of the odds of getting one plus the odds of getting two plus the odds of getting three plus the odds of getting 4 ... Up to the infinately small odds of getting 1000.

Now you may question the 1-1000 premise but the rest is actually simple mathematics proven through basic axioms.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution

The cumulative probability of at least one is around 73.58% for n tries with a 1/n probability.

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

For example you can determine the probability of at least one ensorcelled (or 2 or whatever you like) enter the probability of .01 for the odds (1%) then enter the number of tries and for fun the exact number of successes you are interested in.

So for example you may try 100 times. The odds of getting exactly one is 39% while the odds of getting 1+ is 73.58%.

Isn't math fun?[/quote]
I can count mommy